Funny, wrong predictions in technology and business
A collection of laughable predictions
As part of some presentations for clients and at speaking at conferences, I wanted to make my point about how being conservative and laugh at innovations, may seem safe at first but can fight back in bad ways.
I thought that learning from conservative-originated proved-to-be-wrong predictions would be a fun and engaging way to prove my point.
I then got passionate about them and collected some which I am sharing below.
Why people get so much wrong at times? There are many different reasons, in my opinion:
- Own Interest. They want to protect their existing competitive advantage from innovation and deny anything that may cannibalize their current cash cow.
- Fear. They are totally uncomfortable with leaving the status quo, they totally dislike change.
- Myopia. Even when things are very clearly in front of them they cannot see them.
- The unexpected happens. There was really no way to predict what has then happened.
Add yours! (Just use the (+) sign on the right of each paragraph.
1925 Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?
Harry Warner (Hollywood media mogul) was scared that new technology would disrupt his business in movie theatres.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Warner
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” —Ken
Olson,
president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, 1981
1946 American families will have no time for TV
On a 1946 article on the New York Times to you could read:
“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it.”
1995 I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet said in 1995:
“Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
1995 Why the Internet will Fail
The Internet? Bah!
Hype alert: Why cyberspace isn’t, and will never be, nirvana
…The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.
http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2010/02/27/newsweek-1995-buy-books-newspapers-straight-intenet-uh/
1996 Dell? It’ll never take off
“Alan Sugar’s biggest error was in 1996 when he was sitting on a panel with an unknown US guy named ‘Michael Dell’ — and Alan said “PC manufacturing-to-order will never take off.”
2001 Apple retail won’t work
When Apple launched their first Apple Store in 2001, Cliff Edwards and ex Apple employee wrote an article for business week that explained why that attempt would not work.
2005 The iPod? It’ll be “dead, finished, gone, kaput” by Christmas
In February 2005 Alan Sugar (Amstrad CEO in the past) predicted that the iPod would be “dead, finished, gone, kaput” by the following Christmas.
2003 “Those Google guys? Let’s see if they still want to run it in two or three years”
So said Bill Gates to a fellow Microsoft executive in 2003 about Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
“These Google guys, they want to be billionaires and rock stars and go to conferences and all that. Let’s see if they still want to run the business in two or three years.”
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/05/02/8258478/index.htm
2007 There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share
Steve Ballmer interview
Q: People get passionate when Apple comes out with something new — the iPhone; of course, the iPod. Is that something that you’d want them to feel about Microsoft?
A: It’s sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody. Now we’ll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.
Watch the video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U
2007 Twitter does not make any sense
Jason Pontin in a 2007 NYT article wrote:
Bruce Sterling, the science fiction writer and journalist, who used Twitter at South by Southwest, wrote to me, “Using Twitter for literate communication is about as likely as firing up a CB radio and hearing some guy recite ‘The Iliad.’ ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/business/yourmoney/22stream.html?pagewanted=all
